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Tony Seba
Co-Founder at RethinkX
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2020 Transportation Summit
January 8, 2020, Raleigh, NC, USA
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2020 NCDOT Transportation Summit - Opening Session
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Opening Session of the 2020 NC DOT Transportation Summit.

Keynote Speaker; Tony Seba

About speaker

Tony Seba
Co-Founder at RethinkX

- Executive leader with 20+ years of solid experience in fast-growth clean and high-tech companies. Broad functional experience, proven track record in winning strategy and P&L results, high integrity, strong public presence, ability to build organizations, recruit and motivate world-class executives, vision, strategic and execution skills. http://tonyseba.com/biography/ - Entrepreneur - Founder and CEO of PrintNation.com; raised $30+million in venture funds, hired complete management team, disrupted 4th largest manufacturing industry in US, winner of major leadership and entrepreneurship awards. Founding executive at multiple clean disruption startup companies. Early employee at Cisco Systems and RSA Data Security. Helped create and market more than two dozen products, developed strategy for public and private companies, developed multimillion dollar businesses with world-class organization and helped lead $200 million merger. - Educator and Keynote Speaker - Lecturer in entrepreneurship, disruption and clean energy at Stanford University. Keynote speaker on 'Anticipating and Leading Market Disruptions', 'Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation' and Entrepreneurship. Guest lecturer at Singularity University and international business schools. http://tonyseba.com/educator/

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Ladies and gentlemen, may I have your attention please. Our program will begin in a few minutes. Please find your seats. Once again, our program will begin in a few minutes. Please find your seats. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, may I have your attention please, our program is about to begin. Please take your seats. Once again, our program is about to begin. Please take your seats. Thank you. Ladies and Gentlemen, please welcome North Carolina Board of Transportation. Chairman, Mike. Fox

Good morning, everyone. What a great video that highlights our challenges in the past year and also a lot of our accomplishments many of which were due to the people sitting in this room, there's a lot of ncdot staff and employees here. A lot of our contractor and Industry partners and our legislative Partners, I want to thank everyone for being here over the next two days. You're going to hear from experts and Technology industry. International leaders who will bring us new ideas and different perspectives. The fact that you're here are watching this on

Livestream, indicates that, you know how important it is to North Carolina's ability to remain competitive on the global stage and for us to manage these changing Trends, instead of finding ourselves left behind First thing I want to do is thank our partner in this Summit. NC go and see go as as all of you in the room. No, has been a strong advocate for transportation policy and funding for many years and we're lucky to have such a great partner. Additionally, we want to thank our other sponsors and partners for this event. As you probably know, it is an entirely self-supported event

and our sponsors and exhibitors truly make this possible. First, I'd like to thank our Platinum sponsors and you can see those at the top of the screen there. Thank you. Then, in the middle, we have our gold sponsors and at the bottom are high visibility sponsors. And then our silver sponsors and our bronze sponsors. And our copper sponsors. And then finally have a media sponsor Spectrum news. As you can see, from the exhaustive list there, a lot of people came together to make this happen. So thank you to all of you and thank

you for attending at to better your experience while you're here at the transportation. Some and I want to encourage you to participate and ask questions, I'll complete the interactive surveys and most importantly make a point of meeting. And and interacting with the people that are here, that you may not know before even maybe people, you only see once or twice a year, that's a large part of the benefit of a summit like this is networking and connecting with people and exchanging ideas. So in the spirit of that in and using our technology that we're going

to be talking a lot about today. I'd ask you to take a moment and download the app if you have, it's the crowdcompass attendeehub in the App Store. I did this earlier this week and once you do that search for transportation Summit and download the event, the app will provide you with an up-to-the-minute agenda over the next two days as well as allow you to network with other attendees and participate, interactively through the session, you can even link it to your social media accounts and it will post things from the the summit on

social media. I found out at dinner last night, some of our Board of Transportation members can get a little competitive that there is evidently a game and then you can score points by by doing things involved in the summer. And I found out I was immediately almost last Nobody's surprised by that, but I would encourage you to participate. You can also use our hashtag and see transpo, 2020 and post things on social media that way. In addition, I'd like to ask each of you to link to and participate in the NC moves. 2050

survey. We need to hear from you as of what you value. And once you see the future being for transportation in North Carolina, and that will really help us determine our plans and go forward. Now, I'd like to ask everyone to stand for the presentation of the Colors. By the members of the junior Navy, ROTC Color Guard from Western Alamance, High School from Elon, North Carolina, right next. To my hometown, after the presentation of colors, please join me in citing, the Pledge of Allegiance and remains standing for the national anthem performed by Jesse White who is a mass communications

major from NC Central University Commander. If you present the colors, He would join me in the Pledge of Allegiance. I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic, for which it stands. One nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. Like to welcome, Jesse White to the stage. Oh, see, can you see? What's up? Whose broad stripes. Where is SoCal? Jose. Thank you, Jesse. And the junior Navy ROTC from Western Alamance high school at this time. It's my great pleasure to bring Mark Finlayson to the

podium as the chair of inseego Mark has been a tireless advocate for strong, Transportation, policy and investment. They were great Summit partner last year. And we're really pleased to have them again this year and we couldn't do this without them. In addition, in to go, in addition to the the great partnership here at this Summit there a strong Advocate throughout the year, they were really instrumental in helping us advocate for the building C program and and any other Transportation program said we need to get the legislature in the public to make sure that they understand

the need for in Seacoast, a great partner, they are. So, would you help me? Welcome, Mark Finley, listen to the sage. Thanks very much for that introduction. Mike, good morning everybody. Great to see you. On behalf of inseego, Welcome to the 2020, North Carolina, Transportation Summit. It's a great crowd. It's my pleasure to be here, with chairman Foxwood, secretary, trogdon at all of you today in Chico is proud to partner with the Department of Transportation on this. The second annual Transportation Summit and we look

forward to continuing the partnership for many years to come. Known as the good roads state. Because for decades, our state was a leader in the quality of our highways in North Carolina is at a critical juncture. We now have a complex, multi-modal transportation system, plus a fast-growing population, that's intersecting with a transportation funding mechanism. The motor fuel tax, that's out of step with the realities of the 21st Century. As we look to the future, we see a

world increasingly shaped by electrification Automation ride-sharing and other Transportation disrupt. Not only must we plan for those changes but also plan for the financing of the changing transportation system of tomorrow. This is why the presentations in speakers, you'll hear over the next couple of days are so critical to how we will address the future Thinking Beyond today's system. We must Envision the transportation system. The future chart, a course

to achieve it and design a sustainable funding plan to pay for it. This is a team effort since 2001 inseego has worked to educate policymakers and the public about the challenges, facing our straight, by our state's transportation system, and advocate for Solutions. You all being here at the Summit is a first step but we invite all of you to join us and become transportation and Advocates along with us. Together, we can find the solutions that improve safety mobility and Economic Opportunity throughout North Carolina for the decades to come. So with that, I'll say to you

enjoy the summit, we look forward to working together with you today tomorrow and going forward. Thanks very much. Thank you, Mark. It's always good to look out and see a standing-room-only crowd and I know we've got a lot of folks stand in the back and if you're like me and occasionally your back hurt, when you sit for too long you're welcome to stand. But if you do want to sit down, we've got plenty of seats over on this side, so I just want to make everyone aware of that. It's my privilege now to introduce secretary jim. Trogdon, I've had two

is, as one of the real benefits of being on the board of Transportation, in particular, be in the chairmen of the board transportation, as you get to work with Jim, Triton. And I've had the pleasure being able to do that twice. Outside, the gym was chief. Deputy secretary during the previous administration when I was on the board and get him to come back and work with him. Now, as secretary has been a real pleasure, in those of you who know, Jim know what a special person is, what a problem solver is how he is easy. Work with and he's creative and Innovative.

And the origins of this Summit word where he a classic Jim it's was Jim's idea but we need to have a summit to bring together great minds and all the people who are interested in Transportation, North Carolina so they can share ideas and talk about it. You have some of the results-driven things that you've seen. Jim trogdon do in the past couple years or you know recover from hurricanes work with our partners out there, including the environmental Partners, to find solutions to move project forward where everyone has a win. And one of our largest construction

projects in our history, complete 540 music. You if we had the groundbreaking on that recently, so that will be a great project. Those are all Hallmarks of Jim Providence leadership. He would at this time, please. Welcome in joining secretary, Jim. Trogdon to the stage Good morning, and thank you, mr. Chairman, we're fortunate to have such a dedicated leader, the board of transportation. And I do want to reiterate German foxes comments to think, Mark, and lacing and inseego. They helped us really kick off this Summit last year and because of their dedication and

hard work were able to do it again. So we really appreciate their support up before. I introduce our keynote speaker, I would like to introduce our first interactive question and I believe it should be coming up on your screen. And it will be what technology has the potential to be the most of disruptive in the next 50 years. And so will review that the answer your answers to that question at the end of this session. So thank you for joining us today at the second, North Carolina, Transportation Summit this morning. We begin to full days of what will offer us the

opportunity to Envision. What is possible, what is probable, and what is wise for our state. Each of you has seen the impact that that system changes have had on Transportation in our industry. Just over a few year. Our keynote speaker this morning is internationally renowned thought leader an entrepreneur and best-selling author as well as co-founder of rethink X which is a think tank focused on technology induced disruption. I became aware of Tony a few years ago I believe was the late

2016 and followed his work ever since then I believe it's important to set the stage for the next two days with an image of what is to come. And to realize that the speed at which change will come will increase We are on the cusp of the fastest deepest, most consequential, disruptions in energy and transportation. In our history, Tony will focus on the convergence of these key Technologies to include Battery Technology, electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, and renewable energy combined with business model

Innovation and product innovations that will disrupt in energy and transportation as well as other supporting Industries, like parking infrastructure, real estate, insurance, and fossil fuels. So as we Ponder the policies and infrastructure Investments by government leaders, citizen city planners policymakers. We can assume that the future will look like the past. Clean disruption will have trillions of dollars of impacts to our infrastructure over the next decade, and it will create trillions

nationally, in family, and social benefits and improve access to healthcare. Two jobs the entertainment for all demographics, for the elderly, for the disabled, for the young for the poor for the middle class, everyone will see positive impacts to these Transportation disruptions over the next decade and provide what we believe and what Tony will discuss a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to redesign our Urban Landscapes. So the choices that our leaders will make today will be profound and will have implications for decades to come.

So please, welcome, help me. Welcome, Tony. Savor to the stage. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Secretary Brogden. Thank you so much for that. Kind introduction. And thank you all for being here today, sold-out, audience. I want to take you into the future of transportation and energy, but before I do that, I want to take you into the past. This is New York City in 1900. Is there a parade? There is one car in this picture? In a sea of horses will use horses as our main

means of transportation. All of humanity for thousands of years, there is one car in this picture there in 13 years. There was one horse in the picture. Can anyone see it? Essentially Transportation flipped from all horse - 1/2, all cars, - 1 in just 13 years, 13 years. And this is more than a hundred years ago and asked you know technology is changing even more rapidly now. And this is how quickly disruptions happened. Thirteen years. That's all it took. If you had invested in a horse barn, in 1900,

basically you lost all your money. So what is a technology disruption other times? A car was the disruptor A disruption is essentially, when there is a convergence of technologies, that make something possible that make a product or service possible in that product intern, can help create new markets and new jobs and New Opportunities and at the same time destroy or radically transform existing Industries, that's what A disruption is. And it also, we talked about this rupture, not destruction, it's not necessarily. So, where are the jobs

or this is Ford Motor Company in 1913 creating jobs and the 20th century. America Transportation was the economic engine of the country. So we talk about destruction and creation disruptions, also change tastes and preferences. Now we think of face as something that's constant, but in fact, there are variables. So back then, what happened to all those horses? We ate them know, I didn't write you then, but essentially, they went from being transportation to being food. And even the dean of NYU

New York University strongly advocated horses and he called it something like clean meet. You know, later after humans and dogs pet, started eating, dog food. I mean horses, so tastes and preferences do change and now let me take it to 1985. When did then largest Telecom company on Earth, AT&T hired a consulting company, Mackenzie, and the ask him one question and one question only. By the year 2000, hit me a 15-year forecast of this new thing called the cell phone. How many subscribers would we get? If we invested in that market in McKenzie went off and do whatever it is

that they do? And they came back with this number 900000. By the year 2000 is going to be nine hundred thousand subscribers. The reality was 109 million 109 million, right? I mean that's not a small mistake. That's a factor of 120 *. My little dog could have done better and charged a lot less, right? That's not kidding. But you know really who knew right who know that the smartphone and the internet and song, we're going to be such a big Force but I did. And I'm going to tell you

how I did know, right? I wish I were an investor because, 15 years ago, I posted this portfolio of Education portfolio, that consisted of little companies like Apple and Google Netflix Salesforce in that portfolio. It's not worth more than 3 trillion dollars, right? 15 years. So is there any correlation between high tech disruptions and energy? And it turns out that yes there is but here's a question. Why? Why do experts an Insider send mainstream out of this consistently get disruptions wrong

every single time. It is the experts who dismissed disruptive opportunities. Really smart people. Bill Gates. When he's made a bundle of money, right? How could he be wrong about the internet? How could you be wrong about this Smartphone? And so on and so forth? I mean, the cover of Forbes magazine in the Year. 2007 have no key on the cover. Remember Nokia? Yeah. No Kia. What else happened? 2007. The iPhone, right? But here's the question that I've asked myself for 15 years. Why do smart people in smart organizations? Consistently fail to leave for anticipate

technology because it's a big deal because a lot of money is wasted by not investing in disruption and by investing in the old model, right? So after all that work, I have essentially created the framework for how thick Knology disruptions work. Not in hindsight. That's interesting. But can we anticipate? Can we forecast, more or less disruptions to come. I'll walk you through some of these elements and then I'll dive into transportation, to one of the things that I look at is technology,

technology Costco's, essentially, every single technology. Improves every year, improves capability and improves cost both, right? That's what I call the Costco. So if you look at the Computing is Moore's, law 41% per year on a dollar basis, not just capability. So essentially every two years we can buy for the same dollar twice the Computing capability, data storage, Digital Imaging, and so on and so forth. But each one of them is improving at a different rate

which makes it difficult to keep up with all of them. Now, here's another element. I'll come back with a knowledge Eco scarves. We see a lot of linear projection, right? You take a Baseline and then you are a percent over the next 23 years. That's a linear projection, but no technology in history and I've looked at history, right? Then thousand years, no technology. In history has been adopted, lean early later, they're either a bust or their adopted as

an s-curve. Now, what is an escrow? They go seemingly slowly. They're not going slowly. But when they're under 1 or 2%, we don't notice in. And then suddenly Boom the achieve, a Tipping Point, a critical mass and they explode and then they slow down again, right? When they get my screen of the iPhone again. Smartphones came out in 2007 and they exploded Apple turned into a trillion-dollar company. And now that market is slowing down, makes sense. Now, in the meantime, the cost not of the phone but of their technology

is going down. Exclamation, do you know This is transportation. Transportation is not a smartphone, right? Well, not really write the maneuver and lifting someone that's a different story but can't Transportation. Really got disrupted that quickly. I went back to the horses on the cars to see how quickly is that adoption happen in the whole United States. Interesting. Lee what I found was that it went from 0 to about 95%. In 20 years. But that's not that interesting. What was interesting is that, from the Tipping Point to

about 80%, which is when Marcus slow down, Happened in 10 years in 10 years. Now this is more than a hundred years ago, right? Even more interesting, this happen while we built two brand-new Industries, the Auto industry and the oil industry when were building at, we went while we built a brand new road infrastructure, nationally. And while we fought World War 1, well, all of that happened, the disruption took place in about 10 years. So anyone who tells you A disruption cannot happen in 10 years is not looking at the evidence.

Even policies adopted as eskers. So is this is the gasoline tax in America, which, of course, right now, we know, you know, basically is a constant, right? We all know it, we all pay it. Well, I don't, I don't own a car but Oregon passed the first in February 1919. And then within six years, 91% of US states have adopted, that has an S curve. Adoption happens with an S curve and technology. Technology is changing even more quickly than ever. It's because it is look at the Oscars going from

1900 /. 2,000, they're getting steeper and steeper and steeper. so, either you're in or you're out in a matter of weeks months, or a couple years, Write either you're in or you're out. Let me think. A detour and go back to mainstream analysis. Now, this is the CIA. Projection of solar PV. Starting in the year, 2009 is reality and all those colored lines their projection. So every year, starting in the year 2010, make a prediction in the year 2030. This is what we think

solar PV is going to be solar Girls by about 2:40 50% and then the yagos back and says, oh okay, so I'm going to move up my line. This is what I think is going to be in 2030 and they keep moving of the right. They haven't got a single projection even in the ballpark of reality, write. All their projections are linear like see a line in some cases. They even show the adoption is going to go down. Now, that's solar PV is the cheapest form of energy generation. Bar None. They still think it's going to go down. How is that possible,

Right? In any case the projections are linear? They are mechanistic in the sense that they take one variable and they essentially extrapolated work and never housework. Technology has never been adopted linearly but that's S curves right systems. If one thing changes, a lot of other things are going to change and vice versa. The reality, right? So the conclusion is that mainstream analysis. It's about forecasting, the past, not the future, they think, what's today, and they basically draw a line, right? And it's

not just about Evie or electric vehicles or whatever 2005, the eia projected that the US was going to be a natural gas in Porter. Over the next few years by Twenty twenty. Or so importer 10 years later, Projected that the us is going to be an exporter to do now, right after fracking and Sheldon. Someone born in 2005 if you have to make an investment in the future of energy and you looked at the eia numbers, he said look we're going to have to import and you build forts you build infrastructure. And in fact all that flipped Between 2000 and

5/8 and 13. They changed their forecasts by 500%, and then by another 90%, right? And if you fall, that's curved. Essentially, all they're doing is taking the recent past and extrapolating it. That's all they're doing is for you, okay? So it's about extrapolating, the past now back to V's in 2010 that ye predicted, that there would be a hundred 18 electric vehicle sold in the year 2035. 118 know. I always wonder, how do they come up with these numbers?

I mean, I'm imagining them sitting in a room. Let's see. In 25 years, 59 to small. Let's see. A hundred. I don't know, maybe I mean, seriously, Tesla was already public. How hard was it to even predict a thousand Tesla was telling like couple of thousand even back? Then you really think it's going to go down anyway but to disruption Convergence is very important. Why did the smartphone happen 2007? I want you to answer question. Why? Then the iPhone came out in 2005 or 2009? No,

both the iPhone and the Android came out the same year 2007. Not 5 or 9. What was the magic of 2007? 2007 is when all the technologies that maze is smartphone possible. Convert. So, all the thing that computing power broadband data, storage touchscreen, all of these things ologies that made $600 smartphone possible happen, 2007, So any of 30 40 companies could have actually built a smartphone. Nokia could have done it Motorola Blackberry could have done it. Remember then so

why then they do it? That's another disruption, that's another lesson of disruption disruptions happen from the outside. Neither Google nor Apple has ever built a phone before and yet they're the ones who own ninety-plus percent of the smartphone market. Disruptions happen from the outside. It's very rare that company that can disrupt itself. Business model Innovation is every bit as disruptive technology is everything but the business model Innovations are enabled or made possible by the

convergence that I'm talking about. So, Uber live, right? Auntie? For instance, on demand transportation. Started Uber started in 2009 in a little apartment in San Francisco, seven years sober and they were made possible by the smartphone and the cloud. So it's no coincidence that over started 2009 two years after the smartphone came out to be one thing, makes the other possible know, in seven years over have more bookings. Then the whole taxi industry in America, talk about A disruption 70 from the apartment, two

more buildings and the whole taxi industry in America. So, again, anyone who tells you A disruption and not happen in transportation, in 7 years, is not looking at the evidence in eight years. After Uber got started over and lived became so big. They're like more than 20% of the vehicle miles traveled in cities like San Francisco and New York and soared 20% from 0 to 20. So my question is, how do you go from 20 to 100? Is that possible at all? But again, that's a serious disruption and

Starting a few years ago, a lot of folks, stopped, buying new cars because of right Ellie stop. This is not new. This started a few years ago. And I predicted by 2020 because of several reasons, this is one of them. There's going to be Peak new car or pick new gasoline car. And what did mainstream Alex call me insane, not going to happen. Number of course, is going to double, we're going to go from a billion 2 billion and so on in the plan is going to choke and it's the end of the world as we know it. And I said, no like

2020, we're going to have Peak new gasoline car, right? Yes. What's going on last year? I may have been off for a year, I don't know. But last year, China was down the auto market. India was down your voice. Sound in the u.s., what was it? A blip. I don't think. So. The trend is clear, right? People are not buying new cars. Essentially. No gasoline cars. In diesel cars right now. I'll keep going on this because this is very No, another Concept in my framework. The

idea of Market trauma. Now, what is Mark a trauma? Essentially, because I mean what you hear from a lot of mainstream analysis is, don't worry about it. That's only 2% and 20% of the market how much damage can it do. It's going to take 10 20 years before, you know, it's actually this, this takes over the market and so, I don't worry about it. I keep investing in whatever it is. The truth is different. The reality, is that a technology can disrupt? The economics of an incumbent

way before they have 10, 20, 30 per cent of the market way before So small changes from technology. Can have Swift dramatic impact in existing Industries and an example that I'm going to show you is the case of GE which is essentially, GE power has collapsed because they made the wrong choices but solar and batteries are still a small percent of the market. So I'll get back to that. Know what are the key technologies that I'm following? But I think in combination different convergence of different Technologies are going to disrupt everything pretty much over the next 10-15 years.

These are basically the technologies that I'm following. This is not everything, but energy and transportation in food and so on these Technologies, a different times in different places are essentially going to disrupt everything. In the 2020s. Taking this in 2014, I wrote a book called clean disruption of energy and transportation and I'm going to walk you through the conclusion and also further work that I've done, the conclusion of that book. Essentially for Technologies batteries, V's autonomous technology on demand Transportation, meaning ride-hailing

and solar are going to disrupt all of energy and transportation and it's over by 2030 we can go home now, right? And yeah, of course. I mean you can imagine what it was called back then so I'm going to walk you through this. The first one is I'm not going to talk about solar in 2014 to almost six years ago. This is a cost curve that I drew about Lithium-ion batteries and it was based on the recent cost curve of Lithium-ion batteries which have been around. Since all the

early nineties, I said over the next 15 years lithium mine is going to go down at about 16% for a year. Now, I don't need to be accurate. I just need to see a trend, right? But things are not going to be the way that you do. Most people think today's and of course of the time I'm not there were repeated that was called insane. But guess what? It's 2020 and the cost of Lithium-ion batteries is exactly what I predicted. But in fact why? Because in 2014,

very few folks, imagine how big this industry would be in only five and a half years. There were only three lithium on megafactories. Now, there are 96 96. I mean this is not a linear scale. This is totally super explanation. And of course, the, the cost of us actually accelerated, so maybe they were right. 16% was not going to happen. It didn't now it's more than 20% every year, right? So it's actually happening even more quickly. Now storage is an evening

disruptions in electricity. So, one example is in Australia where a big Tesla battery That had 2% of the market 2% of the capacity of that market in South Australia, essentially, to the 5% market, share money, and brought wholesale prices down by about 90%. Repeat with 2% of capacity, they brought down the incumbent revenues by 90%. This is what I call Market trauma. You don't need a battery to take 50% of the capacity Market to disrupt the electricity providers, right?

That's Market trauma, and they cost of batteries because it's going down so fast. And because it's being enabled, both by energy and transportation. It is disrupting us, Larry services, and then peekers and now baseload, right? Just as I predicted. Boom. Boom, boom. A disruption from above, okay? And today, natural gas lines are being disrupted, their being shut down because of big batteries today. This is not in the future natural, gas speakers already stranded all of them

and then it's over and this Market is growing by Leaps and Bounds today, right? So what happened to GE, this is what happened to GE. They expected the natural gas market to keep growing over the future of the next 20 years and the nuclear Market. And the coal Market. They bet on that, and they doubled down on that and their stock went down, 74%, or so they almost got wiped out. This is one of the Premier industrial companies in America. In the world of the

20th century. Write making a linear projection, that things were going to happen in the future just like they didn't, it didn't happen, they expected, they know about soccer I mean to have a wind company. They know what's going on. But they would have expected. Those markets not to affect their revenues for another 10-20 years from because of Market trauma. Okay, so batteries and able the electric vehicle, right? So here's the question, is the electric vehicle disruptive? Or is it a you know, conspiracy Greenie conspiracy

against the oil companies, right? Did I say I don't own a car? I got the 40. I have the same suit, 10 years later, that's 10 years ago. Same suit at same time. So easy. These are ten times cheaper on a per-mile basis to charge ten times cheaper and that may be improving actually in Georgia, the University of Georgia. They're buying. I think 20 electric buses. They, they did a test. And in terms of gasoline, they spend actually 94 buses, and 10 a day for electric buses. So that's 9 x. 9 x cheaper to fuel than electric van.

Van gasoline or diesel, no maintenance issue, only gasoline or hybrid actually car. This is your car. I mean, it has more than 2,000 moving part. That's your car, right? Where I need to be about 20, 20, moving parts. That's it, maintenance essentially free for these things. Only so many moving parts and their magnetic. Right there. Their they're, they're not their magnetic. They barely move. That's why companies can offer infinite mile warranty because these things

don't break, right? No modular design architecture. I want you to see this specially, if you own a truck, Tell me if you can do this. Good luck to him. With your F-150. No, there's nothing magic about this electric powertrains. You can have any number of Motors. Now this truck has for four Motors but you can have eight or two or three you can't do that with a conventional engine. So basically gives you or the computer a lot more control over traction, you can actually parked sideways with a navy. I'm going to try that with your

diesel right now. Here's the most important thing about the electric vehicles. The last 500,000 MI Write a gasoline car. Last hundred forty, maybe 200 if it's a Volvo 840, more or less, we drive them. Twelve years, then thousand twelve thousand miles a year but I need be lost $500,000 and actually Tesla just announced the million mile if he coming soon, right? But let's keep it at five hundred thousand miles every year. Tiffany B, last 500,000 miles. We would need 50 years to drive one who drives a car for 50 years. Right?

Unless you live in Cuba. But so for individual said, may not be that interesting, but if you're a fleet, your Uber for FedEx, if your list, then you drive your car. 100000 miles a year. So over 5 years, you either want one TV or three internal combustion engine cars or Vans? Does that make sense? So for fleas, it makes total sense for them to go a fully be even without autonomous technology because for purely economic reasons. So, when did cost of Eevee's approach the cost

of ice Vehicles, then you can see the market flip for fleets, right? So this is the same curse that I drew again for electric vehicles, in 2014 to almost six years ago. And I said, bye. Now, by the year 2020. You will see the market offer a 200-mile electric vehicle. And by the way, 200 miles for me has been the minimum Auto considered hybrids. I don't consider anything below that I only consider 200-mile plus V's, right? I said that by now, 2020 you're going to see $30,000 EV no

subsidies $30,000 vs $1,000 and of course you're insane and all that stuff. Guess what? I've been right on the money. I mean last year, that's worth $35,000 this year. We've seen several actually cars in China. Break the $30,000 barrier already. It's been right on the Money Ball. Most of the month almost of the month. Now, here's what's interesting about $30,000, the average of the median, new car in America cost. $34,000? Now the market is offering V's, which I showed you are far better, right? They last longer

they few love, you know, what? A sense of the Gods? No means and so on. For less money than the median new car in America. This shift is going to happen for purely economic reasons, starting next year. Okay, next year is the Tipping Point, big for purely economic reasons. It won't make any sense to buy gasoline cart and the cost is going to continue to go down. 2025, you'll be able to buy a $12,000 electric vehicle with 212,000 dollar, right? If I'm if I continue to be right, which I am right.

Sorry. I mean you know we can see this in China. Anyone who has any. Please go? There were already seen $10,000 cars with you know, hundred twenty hundred thirty miles today. How hard is it to believe that the same car is not going to have two hundred miles. Every new car. After 2025 is going to be Electric. Every new car for purely economic reasons because they're more powerful, they're cheaper to maintain and so on and so forth. 2025 not 40, not 50 for purely economic reasons. Because it makes sense

right now, Saint just ordered a hundred thousand vans. To hit the road starting 2021 to 2020 a hundred thousand for being green right? They're known for making bring they're making the right economically choice for Amazon and they're already essentially going electric, but they have to because it's cutting the car off deliveries for Amazon. OK, Google, zone is doing this. Why do you think their competitors have to do? What do you think FedEx has to do and UPS? They do. Otherwise, they cannot compete, they all have to go electric.

And by the way, I can see that a $200 TV, provide Power. For the average home in America. For 2 days 2, full days of power, you can follow your house with your electric vehicle trade that with your F-150. Again, you can't do that. You can actually make money with your electric vehicle, right, or save money. And okay, so that's the baby and that's disruptive in its own way. And right, hailing is disruptive in its own way, and I thought it was technology. Let's talk about autonomous technology. Just watch this a little bit. This is

Google. Now waymo and they've had this program and Arizona in Chandler. Now they have about 1,500 active monthly users of this autonomous right hailing program. Go to work or school or the shop this. Look at it. No pants mom. okay, there are More than four dozen companies, actually, one year, one pops up every day yesterday, Sony announced that they have an autonomous vehicle. Sony, who know all of these companies are investing tens of billions of dollars

in autonomous technology. I mean it's their sister raised will be the first in autonomy. Why is that right? I mean, can't you just wait for somebody else to do? It does Meister model is say that not going to happen until 2040. Right? Why are they in such a rush? Autonomous technology is like an operating system. So think of Eevee's or autonomous vehicles as computers on Wheels, that's what they are. There. Computers with one big battery in and wheels, right? Autonomous technology is the operating system

know if you think of computer history. Android iOS to survive. Windows to survive, right? I mean you have a third one, maybe Lenox or whatever but because of network effect, only two operating systems usually take more than 90% of the market and that's exactly what is going to happen with autonomous technology. It's an operating system and only two things we can learn from the history of computing. The first one is no one is going to wait. Apple did not wait for anyone before they came out with the iPhone. Once iOS worked, they came to Market into

only two companies are going to survive, right? Maybe three. But that's it, and everybody's going to have to pay money to these two companies if they want to play. That's why everybody is investing. So much now, waymo ordered 62,000, self-driving, minivans, that are going to be delivered this year 2020. 60, mm fleet vehicles or about 5% of all the vehicle miles traveled in North Carolina. That's it 62,000. They're super disruptive and expect them to go to market. I expect them to go to market this or next year. 62 thousand and that's not. All right but

here's the question are autonomous vehicles, safe, right? That's all I hear. All I read is that fatalities, right? So let me give you a number from Tesla. according to Tesla, Tesla's with autopilot based on actual mileage or 8.8 times safer today than human drivers. That's not even level for autonomy, okay? That's less with auto Pilots or 8 plus times safer than humans. And we're not getting any better way, meaning humans right? And Best Western ology is I mean it's computer technology both the hardware and software are getting better. No

interesting Lee. I predicted in rethinking transportation that by 2020 that autonomous technology would be 5 times safer than humans. How am I doing? And by 2022, it would be 10 times safer. How am I doing there? Going to be a lot more? I mean, this is the latest quarter Day. By the end of this year, that's less than knowledge. You may well be already 10 times safer than humans. By 2030. Let me make another prediction. We're going to be talking about taking driver

licenses away from humans because we're so dangerous. If this keeps improving at 40% per year, that's 2x every two years. We're looking at autonomous technology being a hundred times safer than humans. Within 5 6 years. That's it, not 2030. Insurance costs are going to go up for a human drivers, right? Because we're going to be considered dangerous if the whole world used the technology of Tesla autopilot, according to the company, we would save 900,000 lives. We kill 1.2 million people every year in car accidents. Using that

technology we could save today. 900,000 people who is not safe here humans or autonomous technology. If we apply that to North Carolina, we could save a thousand lives every year. Starting. Now, if we use the same people every year. So the question is not, whether autonomous technology safe, the question is, why are we not implementing and why are we not saving a thousand lives over here right now? How quickly is this improving, the gospel of supercomputing, which is what a Visa. Essentially, let me give you an idea of

the largest supercomputer on Earth was called, but I mean, cost, 15 million dollars. If you know, the size of this room, And 150, whatever, 1600 square feet and so on and so forth. That was one Theraflu Ops whatever that is right. One Sarah flops. 15 million dollars by 2016 800 flops or six, hundred bucks. Repeat 1 teraflop, 50 million dollars to a teraflops 600 bucks in 16 years, that's an improvement of 600000 times it gets better. Write the Apple 10 past 5 Trulia

operations per second free with your iPhone. Right. Power would have cost 250 million dollars in the year 2000. We just wait. Companies are investing and not five or 10 in hundreds of trillions operations per second and that's what that sleaze doing an invidious doing in and so on. And I'm going to Nvidia, 25 companies are developing level 5 which is the very, very, very best autonomous technology using their stuff. So it's improving not just exponentially. Now if all you remember is one thing is the Improvement of a I may well

be not just explanation but double explanation, not just exponential, but insanely super exclamation, right? So if you remember Google deepmind, beating the World Champ at the game of go. Now go, it's not chess. You come beat somebody to go with raw computing power. You actually need intelligence or something like it. Now, it took deepmind about 3 years. To beat the European, go Champion, three years, right? And that was huge because the experts thought it would take another 10 for computers to beat humans. Five

months later. The computer, beat the world champion of the world champion is probably ten times better than the European champion and that took three months and then they took that they chopped it and they developed a brand new one from scratch. In that brand new technology, beat the technology that beat the world champion in less than 3 days. 3 years. 5 months, 3 days, that is double exponential. I hate that, that's insane. Anyone who thinks that the tournament technology is not going to improve as exponential rate is not looking at this evidence, right? And autonomous technology is not

just for cars. Remember, this is a computer on Wheels, right? And if she can run, An operating system on a small computer. You can run it on a bigger computer and so on and so forth, anything that moves, anything that moves on Wheels. It's going to be a ton of us, even bicycles. Even anyting tricycles, trucks, you name it. And this means that delivery vehicles FedEx just announced their delivery vehicle Little one, big one, bigger one. Everything that moves on Wheels is going to be at Saint Thomas

and the market invite Know if anyone is worried about the last mile. Now on highways there, very easy, check this out. Anyone who likes gaming? You can actually drive a car from across the country. So that's last mile delivery in that answers. The question of what happens if your car breaks down right Ascension, you can drive it from halfway across the country now This is all good, right? The tournament this disruptive Ivysaur disruptive on-demand transportation is disrupted. So where's the big disruption is actually

in the convergence of these three Technologies. The convergence. That's how this the big disruptions happen. Now, before I take you into that and and their consequences just a reminder, the cars are the second-largest expenditures of the middle class in America after homes, but we only use them for percent of the time. We park them, 96% of the time. I mean, anyone knows 4% on securitization is a disruption waiting to happen. And in fact, it will happen

because of this convergence because the fleet car or van or truck and drives 10 times more efficiently instead of 4% 40% or 50 or 60. So if they drive a hundred thousand miles per year and because of lower maintenance person, if they cost per mile off electric autonomous on demand transport, It's a lot lower. How much lower I'll show you. Everyone is going electric, did I say that DVD? Which is the Uber in China or actually Uber. It's a video of America.

They expect to have 1 million electric vehicles. This year 1 million this year. No, just to give you an idea, 1 million sleep V's in drive the equivalent of 80% of all the vehicle miles in North Carolina, just 1 million. You just needs about 1.43 million play TVs and you can cover all the transportation needs in North Carolina. So transport, that's a service is what I call this disruption on demand, Autonomous an electric owned by fleets, not individuals cleats, that's transport us. A service the day that

autonomous technology is approved in 2021 this happens. Next year, that day the cost per mile of pass is going to be up to ten times cheaper than the cost of owning a car. So next year, Essentially of autonomous technology Australian approved. this is the decision that a potential buyer is going to have to make going to spend 50 Grand over the next five years to buy a new car, or do you want the $100 subscription to Uber or Lyft or whatever per month, just like Netflix hundred bucks, no-brainer 10x Cost. Differential has always caused A

disruption in history. Every single time at 10, I got a friend show. As always enabled, a destruction. So let's assume 2021 the cost per mile drops by about 10 times. And in fact, The cost of Transport as a service which is going to be about $0.10 is going to be below the operating cost of your car is going to be below. I mean even if your uncle gives you a free car that costs of fuel and insurance and parking and all that are going to be higher by two to four times, then the cost of Transport the service. So you may not sell

your car right away but you will eventually because the gods have taught us are going to keep going down, right? And you know many companies have agreed with these numbers. 3 years later including Tesla with just saying now that their transport us a service is going to cost about $0.18, which is in the ballpark, know if this happens, essentially by 20-30 95% of all vehicle mile travel in America would be On demand Economist an electric essentially folks are going to stop buying new cars and if they do because of whatever reason they live too far away or they have too

much money or whatever. You know, it's actually by 2030 60% of cars are going to be late and 40% is going to be individually owned but the fleet cars are going to contribute $100,000 a year. So it's going to be 95% of all miles which means that essentially the whole system of gasoline vehicles trucks fans, Carson and son is going to come to an end over the next 10 years. The implications of that are going to be astonishing. So I'm going to walk you through some of that folks are going to stop buying new cars.

Because they don't make any economic sense. Because, you know, they can save on average $5,600 every year by going with trunk worth as a service $5,600 per person by not owning a car, right? So new vehicle sales, shrink the total vehicle Fleet, meaning every single car in America is going to drop by about 70% cuz eventually we're going to sell more cars and we're going to have fewer cars doing a hundred thousand miles rather than a lot of cars doing $10,000 per year.

An income boost. First family of $5,600. In our pockets. This is not for the government. This is in our pocket by not owning a car and using toss. Right us disposable income increases by 1 trillion dollars trillion with a tea now because also so that goes into our pockets 1 trillion dollars, this is bigger than 80, Amy boost to the economy, ever 1 trillion dollars in our pockets. Productivity increased by not driving, instead of spending all that time on the road driving, if we can do anything else. Now we're not all necessarily going to work. Some of us are going to sleep, some of us are

in a play. But by not driving and doing other stuff. We're going to free up looking to increase productivity by about another trillion dollars in a national level. What does that mean for North Carolina, more or less? Personal income boost of 45 billion dollars per year, which is equivalent to an increase in weight of 10 to 18%, then 20%. That's not. But every year, I mean, this is money in your pocket, every year, productivity increased by not driving is 45 billion

dollars in our pockets, right? That's ninety billion for the North Carolina economy social because it's going to be so cheap and sends five cents per mile. I mean, you'll be able to go from Durham to Raleigh for less than a dollar right door to door less than a dollar on demand. Okay, everybody's going to benefit everybody. Elderly pensioners, retired, folks. Young middle class. Doesn't matter, right? It's actually transportation is going to be almost free compared to what

it is today. Any priests Transportation benefits. Everybody, everybody, that means there's all kinds of evidence that a lot of jobs are not. Were people are a lot of people can't access those jobs because of Transportation. So it's actually more people can access those jobs and vice versa. Economic case, Wallace Games, social games, and that accrues to everybody in society. Vehicles are going to be redesigned. It's not, you know, this is not your father's Oldsmobile, right? I mean, it's going to be more like this. It'll

be like a living room. This is going to be a commute. Okay, totally redesigned. It's not the same vehicles. And by the way, where can I get money back? And on top of that, we can I get a 90% decrease in CO2 emissions. How cold is that? It's not going to cost us money. Where can I get money back and decrease CO2 emissions by 90%, right. Traffic accident, like I said, a million life, save a thousand plus in North Carolina. And this is the road to free Transportation. I mean, imagine a Starbucks on Wheels, right? I mean, I live about forty miles away from Palo Alto 40

miles a day about 60 for an Uber. I don't commute everyday, right? Attentive that would be $6, right? So with transport as a service, it would cost me. 6 bucks to go, 40 miles, just about maybe 4 bucks, but if your Starbucks And you can round up 10 people in my neighborhood and take them to Palo Alto. Essentially, it costs Starbucks $0.60 per person. They can offer me free Transportation, hop on the bus, right by the Lotte $0.60. Is cheaper than then paying the rent in a downtown shop. Does that make sense? And I get free transportation and it's not just

Starbucks. Its offices on Wheels, it's physical therapy on Wheels. This is going to change everything about work about retail and of course transportation. Oil industry, implications are massive Golf Course. If autonomous technology is approved next year, as I expect, we're going to Peak this year, boiled them and is going to beat this year. Okay, that was me take a year or two more, but it's not going to be 10 years, right? So, I assume it makes this year. That means that the oil consumption is going to go down from a hundred million barrels per

year, do bucks, 70, bike 2030, Okay, so it's going to be a smooth curve down, not out. Okay. Now, what happens because of the economics of oil is that at 70 million barrels? We know from 2014, 15, that if you have an oversupply of about two or three million barrels per day, the price of oil for a 2025, it's already happened now, In this scenario that will happen next year, right? So the price of all is going to crash the about $25 next year, or the year after $25, right?

Which means that's a lot of investments in oil. Now are going to be on Commercial starting the next couple years, anything that cannot compete at 25. It's gone stranded forever cuz it's not coming back, right? Implications for land. Use also, our cities are about a third parking. A third parking because we park our cars 96% of the time. But what if we don't own cars? What what is their fleet cars going round and round and round? Right? We all need parking 80. + percent of parking is going to be

obsolete. It's going to be the first time that we're going to have an opportunity to read the sign or cities to Envision the cities that we want rather than the cities that we have, right? More green Parks, check more businesses, check, more, you know, residential buildings. Check a third of the landmass of every city is going to open up more or less. How I did the numbers for downtown. Durham not all of them but downtown in downtown, Durham can open up 2.6 million square feet that are given to

parking. Now, what can you put in 2.6 million square feet? Apple computers their head for Isabel Park is about to eat 2.8 million square feet. Just saying... We can attract big employers, and people and so on and so forth. And all that space, I did the numbers for San Francisco. In the obsolete, free parking space in Los Angeles. You can put three cities, the size of San Francisco, free whole cities. So essentially, today, weather in San Francisco, or Charlotte or Durham or Raleigh. We need to Envision. Why do we want to do with this face or somebody else is going to do it for us right

now? Let me give you tell you something about parking, other people have heard this message, the largest parking operator in the u.s. is a cloud kitchen company. Wow, what is a cloud kitchen company, right? There's a new model of food and food. This mean disrupt. This rough too loud. You know? I can talk about that some other time but you have places for food preparation, only for delivery only So the cloud kitchen company is buying up parking in the downtown to put up these talk kitchen.

They prepare for than just, you know, if they'll ever then no seats nothing, right, that's happening today, okay? So this disruption is happening and I'll leave you with this thought, the disruption is not just about Transportation, everything is changing you do. Now you're going to have anyone who went to the Drone event yesterday. Awesome, drones can already transport people today right and wrong for going to be combined with autonomous van to deliver packages. So, two technologies converging

and we have the technology. When is going to happen is more of a regulatory thing, then it is a technology thing right than real estate. Also, Solar batteries electric vehicles, artificial intelligence are turning buildings into essentially autonomous buildings. They can create their own energy, they can store it, they can sell it and so on and so forth that disruption of transportation is changing everything. Work real estate food parking everything. Now is the time for us to imagine. what city, what state we want to be within 10

years because we can Because when these disruptions happen, it's going to be too late. Everybody is going to be in execution mode. So, I'll leave you with this thought. I started with New York City in 1900. We are here we are where New York City was in 1900, This Is 2020 and we're on the cusp of deepest fastest, most consequential disruption of Transportation in energy in food and cities in hundred years, if not ever This is the time to Envision. What we

want our cities to be when we grow up and it's going to happen quickly. And I'll leave you with one thought. This is not Happening. This is not an energy transition. This is not happening because of climate, this is not happening because of government's. This is happening for purely economic reasons. This is a technology disruption is going to give us money back, not going to cost money, we're going to get money back. Thank you. Thank you. I'm shutdown. I think we're going to put up the survey question and see what the audience's opinion was. If it's up.

What technology has the potential to be the most disruptive in the next 50 years, strong support of a 50% for autonomous vehicles, solar energy at 11%, electric vehicles, at 18 and drones at night. I think 19% if I'm seeing that correct. So you're seeing those as individuals but Tony pointed out that it's the convergence of. Some of those is going to make a big difference, just a few questions, and I'm going to leave with one cuz I know folks out here. Have Heard lots of predictions about autonomous connected on electric and shared vehicle services.

It will result in increasing BMT, not changing BMT substantially, decreasing BMT, where we need less capacity. What is urinalysis show. Yeah, so the analysis shows, The cost of transports going to go down substantially their minds, going to go up. So I see a 50% increase by 2030 and that's because folks don't have access to a percent increase in 2030 projection over the elderly, the disable, the kids and so on are going to have Access Transportation. So there's going to be a big bump, 50% atleast. Yeah. And so then my last follow-up to that would be in this

and we see the transnational. A we see him in North Carolina where we're working hard to better connect, our rule suburban and urban centres, what do rural communities need to be doing to prepare? And how did they leverage this potential? The cost of Transport as a service in rural communities is going to be higher because they don't have the critical mass. I think what we need to do a society in the past what we did was we decided that we would provide electricity to rural communities. Even though,

and I didn't make that much sense in terms of her butt for Equity reasons, we decided we would need to do it water, Postal Service. So essentially we decided that all Americans need to have access to electricity and water and and communication and so on I think that's what we need to do in the case of rural communities. I think that the role of public transportation Has to change will change from one of my managing assets buses, and so, on to one of managing transport, as a service to provide equity,

for all transportation is not a want, transportation is a need. So we need to do that. That's that's how it's all going to change. And we need to start doing that now. And there are many ways to start doing that school, buses. I mean, any kind of ways in which, you know, we don't need to touch individually on Transportation, right? So that this is an experience, good experience. Good means that you need, but it's a good that you need to experience it before, you know, how good it is. So we need to show them, right? We need to do pilots and testing and so on and

so forth. I'll give you an example. Singapore, which really wants self-driving to happen Saturdays. And this one park to get free rides in autonomous technology so that people can experience. Okay, any questions from the audience? It was terrific. I just thought I'd ask Mike Solomon. I'm an engineer working on number of Mega sites in North Carolina for transportation. The one that we lost the big Toyota, Mazda plant. I've been working over eight years. So I've been having a luckily I have an opportunity to talk to the Tesla

folks of the last six months and about sites here in North Carolina. And here is something that is a real challenge for our transportation. To one of the executives that I've been meeting with and talkin tooth is saying, one of the challenges for the whole United States for electric vehicles is charging stations free. If you have any thoughts about how the world is going to be able to do to prepare for the change to electric cars throughout the whole country 1900. Does anyone know when the first gas station in the country

was built? And the whole country. 1905 to 1905 before that guy is supposed to be delivered by horses, right? My point is that, you know, the chicken. And next thing is not because of the lack of charging stations. It's because of the lack of affordable, $200, electric vehicles. And when we have that in abundance in the market, then the market is going to build the charging stations. I don't see a reason why the government should do it then, build the gas stations, right? That's like building. Its own, charging station,

nationally, and worldwide, right? So, once you see that the market is going to take care of it, you know, I'm, I'm I'm in early, I was in early employee and then little company called Cisco Systems, 93-94 hoops and I looked at us Thinking now you're never going to disrupt the landline to let me work it right famous last words and you know we built the internet, we built it us. We went and we found out with any number of infrastructure highways and and and and communication and so on and so forth. So I don't see how

this time is going to be any different. Put please join me in thanking Tony for the wonderful and thoughtful bokken presentation. Thank you, Tony and Jim my job is to keep us on time here and also make sure you know where you need to go next. I got to tell you how excited I am about this conference, because as great as is that just wasn't that was great. You know, all of our sessions are like that. So I really am excited about the rest of the day. Our next session you will take a small break about 15 minutes. Come back at 10:45 and will be

in this room for our next General Session. I do want to note for the breakout sessions. You can obviously attend anyone that that you would that you're interested in. There's been one change tomorrow, the NC gometro mayor's session will be at 11 and the urban-rural will be at 1:30, that's in the app, so it's updated. So if you, if you got the app downloaded, you'll have that at your fingertips, Snacks for outside, the ballroom, all the meals are in the exhibitors hall. I really encourage you to actually go around. Look at the exhibits, talk to the exhibitors. Those are the folks

that make it possible for us to be here. It on the one hand on this, on the other hand, I've got some fascinating stuff down there. The autonomous drone taxi is down there. We got an opportunity to see that fly for the very first time in North America here in North Carolina, is again First in Flight. So, I would encourage you to all to go down and see that it's fascinating technology, and the exhibitors will be happy to talk to you about anything that have their. So with that, please come back here for our next session at 10:45. And thank you very much for your attendance.

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