How to Survive the 21st Century | DAVOS 2020

Just imagine North Korea in 20 years with everybody has to wear a biometric bracelet, which constantly monitors your blood pressure low heart rate brain activity 24 hours a day you listen to speech on the radio by the great leader and the you know, what you actually feel you can collect your hands and smile. But if you're angry, they know you'll be in the gulag tomorrow morning. And if we allow the emergence of such total surveillance regimes don't think that the rich and Powerful inflated like Davos will be safe. I'm

the chairman of the company and will come to the session on how to survive the 21st century. It's not a new topic, but it's really getting urgent 18 years ago marching with an astronomer Royal published a book on the topic. He gave civilization a 50/50 chance of surviving the 21st century. Today, he says his concern have only grown besides new technologies and environmental catastrophe as a reasons. louder can you hear me now? Okay, should I repeat what I said? Sorry guys. Introduce myself. I'm a

ride to the beach to order. There was a little mishap in the play. They have the chairman debate and Company and I will come due to the session on how to survive the 21st century. Start by saying that this is not a new topic inventions that 18 years ago Mark and reach the Britain's astronomer Royal published a book on the topic. And he gave stabilization a 50/50 chance of surviving the 21st century. You probably should have a book this year or actually last year and his concerns have only grown he cited the ecology and environmental campus

Ross as reasons. No being over thirty. It is highly unlikely that I Will Survive the 21st century and Saturdays, especially when I hear about the fires in Australia or hear of yet another example for data and being used to manipulate us or officiously, I find myself kind of glad of that, but I fear that the next Generations may live to see horrific things. Perhaps not especially if we start to really get serious about the extension issues that are coming now into Plain Sight. With us. Today is Yuval Noah

Harari. He's a best-selling author of three books late is is 21 lessons for 21st century. He's Astorian and if they lost through he has thought long and hard about three essential challenges nuclear war ecological collapse and technological disruption. Also with us is Mark Mouton. He's being the prime minister of the Netherlands for 10 years. In 2019 the world economic Forum competitors report bring the Netherlands as fourth globally and first in Europe the pretty good report

card for Nation with some real challenges that are relevant to the topic. We're going to be talking about today as many of you know about a third of the country is below sea level the Dutch are famous for their and there was a famous for the little boy who plugged the leak in one of those bags until help arrives. They're not enough little boy to just plug the threats around us today. But perhaps we can learn something from such Devotion to a common good since this is what it would trade. Quick things off. You've always going to

share some of his coming. Thank you. So, how do I get one? I hope to hear me. Okay. If not, just make a sign. Answer the third decade of the 21st century has so many issues in question, but it's really hard to know what to focus on what I would like to use the next 20 minutes to help us. All the different issues. We say three problems posed existential challenges to our species existence of challenges ecological collapse and technological disruption. We should focus on

them. No nuclear war and psychological collapse are already familiar explaining the threat posed by technological disruption in Davos. We hear so much about the enormous Promises of Technology a real disrupt human society and Zuri meaning of human life in numerous way ranging from the creation of the global useless class to the rise of data colonialism in of digital dictatorship. First we might face upheavals on the social and economic level will soon eliminate Millions upon millions of jobs will certainly be

created. It is unclear whether people will be able to learn the necessary skills fast enough to use old truck driver. Can you just lost your job? So it sells driving vehicle designing software to engineers. How does a 50 years old truck driver reinvents himself or herself as a software engineer? What is the yoga teacher? And people will have to do it not just once but again and again to all the line because the automation Revolution will not be a single

Watershed event for language. The job markets will settle down into some new equilibrium. Brother, it will be a Cascade of ever bigger disruptions potential new jobs will emerge but then the new jobs will rapidly change and Vance had to struggle against exploitation in the 21st century. The really big struggle will be against irrelevant and it's much worse to be irrelevant when to be exploited those who fail in the struggle against irrelevant would constitute a new useless Club. People who are useless note from the

Viewpoint of the friends and family, of course, but useless from the Viewpoint of the economic and political system. And this useless class will be separated by an NFL growing game from the ever more powerful Elite. The AI Revolution might create an unprecedented inequality between classes but also between countries in the 19th century new countries like Britain and Japan industrialize first and they went on to conquer and exploit most of the world. If we aren't careful the same thing will happen in the 21st century with a i

a i r race with China and the US a leading the race in most countries being left far far behind unless you take action to distribute the benefits and power of AI between humans say I will likely create immense wealth in a few high tech Hub while other countries will either go bankrupt Will become exploited data colony. No more insulting about the science-fiction scenario robots rebelling against human about 4 more realistic AI which is nevertheless enough to disrupt the global balance. What will happen to developing economies. Once

it is cheaper to produce textiles or cars in, California in Mexico. And what will happen to politics in your country in 20 years when somebody in San Francisco or in Beijing knows the entire medical and personal history of every politician every judge and every journalist in your country, including all the sexual escapades all their mental weaknesses in all their corrupt dealings. Will it still be an independent country or will it become a date when you have enough data? You don't need to send soldiers in order to control

the country. Alongside inequality the other major danger we face is the rise of digital dictatorship that will monitor everyone all the time. This danger can be stated in the form of a simple equation, which I think might be the defining equation of life in the 21st century. b x c x d equals Which means biological knowledge X computing power x equal the ability to hack humans. If you know enough biology and do you have enough computing power and data? You can hack my body and my brain and my life and you can understand me

better than I understand myself. You can know my personality type my political views my sexual preferences my mental weaknesses my deepest fears and hopes, you know more about me than I know about myself and you can do that. No just to me but to everyone expects them to understand us better than we understand us. They can predict our feelings and decisions of feelings and decisions. We make decisions for us. In the phone many parents and governments wanted to do it. But nobody understood biology well enough and nobody had enough

computing power in data to hack millions of people know the KGB but soon at least some corporations and governments to systematically hack all the people. We humans should get used to the idea that we are no longer mysterious Souls. We all know hackable animals. That's what we are. The power to help human being can of course be used for good purposes like providing much better health care, but if this power falls into the hands of a twenty-first-century stalling the result will be the worst totalitarian regime in human history,

and we already have a number of applicants for the job of 21st century Towing. Just imagine North Korea in 20 years with everybody has to wear a biometric bracelet, which constantly monitors your blood pressure low heart rate brain activity 24 hours a day you listen to speech on the radio by the great leader and the you know, what you actually feel you can clap your hands and smile. But if you're angry, they know you'll be in the gulag tomorrow morning. And if we allow the emergence of

such total surveillance regimes don't think that the rich and Powerful inflated like Davos will be safe. Just ask Just Dance. Installing USSR the state money toward members of the Communist Elite more than anyone else. The same will be true of future total surveillance reaching the higher you are in the hierarchy the more closely you will be watched. Do you want your CEO or president to know what you really think about them? So it's in the interest of all humans

including the Alise to prevent the rise of Taj digital dictatorships. And in the meantime, if you get it be stressed WhatsApp message from some friends don't open it. Even if we indeed prevent the establishment of digital dictatorships the ability to have humans might still underline the valley meaning of human freedom because as humans will rely on AI to make more and more decisions for us Authority will shift from humans and it is already happening today billions of people trust the Facebook

algorithm to tell us what is new the Google algorithm tells us what is true Netflix tells us what to watch in the Amazon and Alibaba algorithm. In the not-so-distant future similar algorithms might tell us where to go and who to marry and also decide whether to hire us for a job whether to give us alone and whether the Central Bank should raise the interest rate and if you ask why you will not given Alone by the bank didn't raise the interest rate. The answer will always be the same because the computer says no, And since the limited human

brain lacks sufficient biological knowledge computing power and data humans will simply not be able to understand the computers decisions supposedly free countries humans are likely to lose control over our online and also lose the ability to understand public policy. Already know how many humans really understand the financial. Maybe 1% be very generous in a couple of decades. The number of human system will be exactly zero. Don't we humans are used to think

about life as a drama of decision making? What will be the meaning of human life when most decisions are taken by algorithm? We don't even have philosophical Mondo to and spend stuck in existence the usual bargain between philosophers and politicians is that philosophy has a lot of fanciful ideas explain the lack the means to implement these ideas. No, we are in opposite situation. We are facing philosophical bankruptcy. between revolutions of infotech in biotech are now giving politicians and

business people the means to create heaven or hell but the philosophers are having trouble conceptualizing what the new Heaven and the new hell will look like and that's a very dangerous situation. If we fail to conceptualize the new heaven quickly enough, we might be easily misled by naive Utopias to conceptualize the new he'll quickly enough. We might find ourselves in front. There is no way out. Find the technology might disrupt not just our economy and politics and philosophy of biology. In the coming decades are in biotechnology will give us guns

like ability to re-engineer life even to create completely new life of pasta 4 billion years of organic life shaped by natural selection. We are about to enter a new hero of inorganic life saved by intelligent design intelligent design is going to be the new driving force of the evolution of life on the creation. We might make mistakes on a cosmic scale. In particular government corporations and armies are likely to use technology to enhance human skills the zany like

intelligence and discipline funny collecting other human skills, like compassion autistic sensitivity and spirituality. The result might be a race of humans were very intelligent and very disciplined but lack compassion like autistic sensitivity and spiritual debt. Book of this is not a prophecy diesel just possibility technology is never deterministic in the twentieth century people used in industrial technology to build a different kind of society. fascist dictatorships communist regimes liberal democracy the same thing will happen in the 21st century

and biotech will certainly transform the world, but we can use them to create very different kinds of society. And if you want a spray of some of the possibilities I've mentioned you can still do something about it. But to do something effective we need Global Corporation. All the three existential challenges we Face our Global problems that the demand Global solution. When is there any legal system fig like my country first? Witcher 3 mind that leader says no Nation can prevent nuclear war. Ecological Collapse by itself and no Nation

can regulate by and bioengineering by itself saying hey, we don't want to develop Killer Robots build a good guys, but we can't trust our Rivals not to do it. So we must do it first. If we allow such an arms race to develop in feels like Ai and bioengineering. It doesn't really matter who wins the arms race the loser will be Unfortunately just went Global Corporation is more needed than ever before some of the most powerful leaders and countries in the world. I'll now deliberately undermining

Global Corporation. Leaders like the u.s. President tell us that there is an inherent contradiction between nationalism and globalism and nationalism and globally. But it is a dangerous mistake. There is no contradiction between nationalism and globalism because nationalism isn't about hating foreigners nationalism is about loving your compatriots and in the 21st century in order to protect the safety in the future of your compatriots. You must cooperate with foreigners the 21st century story good

nationalist must be also globalist. Globalism doesn't mean establishing a global government abandoning on National Traditions or opening the border to unlimited immigration Belize. It means a commitment to storm Global rules. Prove that don't deny the uniqueness of each Nation but only regulates relations between nation and a good model is the football World Cup. The World Cup is a competition between nations and people often show Fierce loyalty to their national team for the

World Cup is also an amazing display of global Harmony. Bronze can't play football against Croatia, unless the French and Croatian agree on the same rules for the game. And that's globalism in action. If you like the World Cup, you're already a globalist. Hopefully Nations could agree on global rules for how to prevent ecological collapse how to regulate dangerous technology and how to reduce global inequality. How to make show for example the AI benefits Mexican textile workers and not

only American software Engineers called this is going to be much more difficult in football, but not impossible. Nichols The Impossible. Well, we have already accomplished The Impossible with already escaped the violence jungle in which we humans have lived throughout history. Thousands of years humans live under the law of the jungle in a condition of omnipresent War the law of the Jungle said that's nearby countries. There is a plausible scenario that they will go to war against each other next year. Under this law

only the temporary absence of War. When's the most peace between say Athens and Sparta both France and Germany? It meant that now they are not at War but next year. Importance of few people had assumed that it was impossible to escape this low. but in the last few decades Humanity has managed to do the impossible to break the law into escape the jungle with built the Rubix liberal Global Order that despite many imperfections as nevertheless created the most prosperous and most

peaceful era in human history the volume meaning of the word peace has changed no longer mean just the temporary absence of War Pink now means the inflows ability of war the many countries in the world, but you simply cannot imagine Going to war against each other next year like France and Germany. Downfalls of the world I come from the Middle East so believe me. I know this perfectly well. But it shouldn't blind us to the overall Global picture in which war killed more people than suicide in gunpowder is

far less dangerous to your life than sugar. most countries with some notable exceptions like Russia about conquering in the next thing the neighbors which is why most countries can afford to spend Navy just about 2% of the GDP on defense spending file for more on education and Healthcare. This is not a jungle. Unfortunately, we've gotten so used to this wonderful situation. Let me take it for granted and we are there for becoming extremely curls. Instead of doing everything we can to strengthen the fragile

Global Order countries neglected and even deliberately undermined. The global order is now like a house that everybody inhabits and nobody with her. It can hold on for a few more years. But if we continue like this, it will collapse and we will find ourselves back in the jungle of omnipresent War Mountain what it's like but believe me the historian you don't want to go back there. It's far worse than you imagine. Yesstyle species is involved in the jungle and Lisbon even frosted there for thousands of years. But if we returns are now with the powerful new

technologies of the 21st century will probably a naked lady. Because even if we disappear it will not be the end of the world something will Survivor. That's the rest will eventually take over and rebuild civilization will learn from our mistakes. Play very much. Hope that we can rely on the leaders assembled here and not on the right. Thank you. Thank you. That was very thought-provoking and challenging introduction and pretty frightening. What's with the red still get the upper hand and with

that in mind, let me turn to you for the minister your head of the government responsible for the well-being of millions of people and in 2019 alone. You have signed multi-partner strategic agreement. And II and then also you're one of the leaders of the EU which is the first organization to think really about data and privacy and to come out with us bold green initiative. Based not on scaring people but really as a strategy for growth, what's your take on this Android ahead

more optimistic optimistic a societal and economic imperative that say urgency to make sure that this big issue of climate change that we get a that you get a grip on it, but I also busy court date. Iraqi mentioned that we have to mitigate them but Fierce urgency of now because of course, I want to mitigate the warming of our worlds and you do what you can to make a possibility book. Of course you need for a guy to be on board. We invest dutchway has mentioned

in the June last year and achievable. I believe the same is true for artificial intelligence in farming with a smaller at the moment. I believe it is more information than the invention of comes to climate change on climate adaptation we go hosting of Tober next this year being being below sea level are we need to do this as we always say God created the Earth the Dutch created the Netherlands. Of course, it is crucial that we changed the educational system and it has to adapt to what is happening in the area of artificial

human Centric approach and leading us here that's crucial and standards for example, in terms of data and privacy is very important to you. And then I come to the big issue being addressed. We have to stay anchored in a note electrical Global for doing this but I knew I was doing sessions be like two beats trump. It doesn't it doesn't help at all big issues in terms of the function of the UN NATO the WTO. Trump Xi Jinping. Secondly, I want to ask attention to

the role of the Free Press that is a ring that weighs Facebook and all the other companies in to the internet now that it is running against the traditional newspapers in a traditional news clip with Obama before the election National politicians being in that small clip-on on the internet. At this moment to be able to explain to the people that is really happening. But that's cost money. So I have respected here in Davao. Don't put all your money in the Internet advertising make sure that our newspapers I would news outlets to pay

sensible and and and real salaries 2 hours to be able to do this. I believe this crucial. I think what will help ye, of course, you have established itself will create a tradition in your Society of debating old Affairs issues and Views Etc and through the court of human beings are young people to be able to distinguish between the crazy stuff and the real stuff to be able to go and establish democracy will be very helpful. Well, thank you. That was optimistic but not optimistic enough for me. So I threw a question in here for both of you completely support Free Press

has done a lot for healthcare in a lot of other things and democracy but technology is still marching on and end of two books Never written in the first half of the twentieth century kind of predicted the future. When was George Orwell's 1984 where the population was controlled by the sphere some dictatorship and surveillance with every where the fuck police was going after they knew what you were thinking and they were going to persecute you and that's kind of like the digital

dictatorship that you've always talked about. The other books in some ways. It's more scary is huxley's Brave New World where buy contras the population is bread or programmed to want what the world state is willing to provide them. So they buy what the algorism tells them that they should want. They do what the algorithm toes and they should be happy doing in a way. It's a lady Tokyo that you talked about. Neither an author by the way mention algorithms because of the word as it exists now in the current use didn't exist, but I'm like the book's

protagonist. We do know that we are being manipulated. You mentioned that when you said why we need to refresh you've ever mentioned that when he talked about where we are with algorithms and the question is really where than we would where they're going to let this continue step should be for example the mountains at all algorithm to make or influence decisions. Are metro public record or at least subject to some regulator who actually can unmask a place or understand how they working and and explained something. Well, you told me you're the

politician we have to go there. We have our Global regulator that's in let's countries beside how to do that regulation there and at the moment it is going on to make sure the first temple Europe European Union is the biggest date of mine in the whole world and find that data is crucial that you have regulation in place for the dentist. Rome II relation is in his independent thinking people and all classes of flour and I mean to a certain extent of you being manipulated Stop every know that's in even the 19th century in

magazines. You would find advertising dear to your particular preferences on the internet, but trying to somehow be able to to to channel your message to a particular audience. What you doing things like that? Basically be in gear stool that sophisticated if you sometimes thing but of course these risks are there a regulation but in the end Then it will. Second most scary nevertheless is Berlin instant. You're five years ago. Nobody talked about AI except for a few scientists and what we sow me this in the 2016 election with Kylie Jenner

still haven't passed the crucial Watershed. The real Watershed is the union of a eye with Biometrics its present still the vast majority of data being mined and people being hacked. Based on biological knowledge. I like biological data is based on the right click where I go what I buy and things like that. It's still outside the body the real Line in the Sand is when biometric sensors become ubiquitous and happening and the date of Star coming from within the body and they can access

your house your brain. Not just your credit card. And Aunt is it snowing near its full capacity. It's going to get much much more sophisticated. So it's going to be much more difficult to regulate it, especially because even if like the European Union, you have a low saying that if an algorithm makes a decision about me like not hiring me for a job. I have the right to know why is very crucial, but to me, it seems completely ineffectual because the way organisms make

decisions about us is based on enormous amounts of data points when a human decides not to hire me for the job. It's usually based on two or three Salient data points and I can understand. Hey you gay that's easy. Was it the big thing about big data and AI? Tens of thousands of data points each contributing a very small percentage and that's how it makes decisions. You have the right to get all the information. So they'll give me a big book of a thousand faces with lots of numbers. This is why the algorithm didn't file for a job

just the way the decisions are being made in the world is going to change algorithms make the decision in a different way than humans. Let me take it from here. I have knowledge would both of you said and pick it right up from here. You're both historians and history is littered with Empires and and it's only would have waited would have done that at that moment the world would look different now. I think we are at that moment. I don't think we talked about the

things we want. We talked about multilateralism, but but their countries who tell is if they don't actually want to cooperate on the standards of the world. There are people who will tell her that I don't want to change the way I make profits and there is no regulator right now. I'm doing that. So this might be the moment in time where we need to think what we know that people start to cooperate when they face a common enemy. And you know my question to both of you from slightly different points of view. How do we how do we get a real or perceived common anime out of this view

of challenges it faces and you talk a lot about the fiction that unites people in religious the nation any travel the world. Let me ask you first and then you from your sister. Nuclear war in ecological collapse It's relatively easy because it's obvious threat to everybody nobody's going to win because that would love to some people corporations and governments think and we some good reason that they can win and AI arms race and they can control the world economy over the world political system was that so it's

much more difficult to convince them that everybody is on the same side and the central issue is inequality. I'm not so worried about the country like the Netherlands. I think you'll be okay. I'm much more worried about countries like Venezuela about Brazil about India about Indonesia. What will they be in 30 50 years when a few countries Exploited everybody else. It could be much much worse in the 21st century. If you have just a few countries that dominate the new Divine powers of technology. And even if you

think about the Netherlands in Europe Europe is how many in the race at present it is at least with AI. It's really China versus the US and neither is a very good option. It's it's time is it suppose we can tell I'm in the US at least until a few years ago at least said that it wants to be the leader of the world and to work for the benefit of everybody know it's resigned its role of leader of the world and it's only says we don't care about anybody except you don't follow my leader whose motto is May 1st.

So I think there is an opportunity here. But I think the opportunities is a wake-up call especially for Europe that you can't rely on the us anymore. And you shoot the Navy the third Independence Way, but this thing's looking 20/20 from the big 20 second place in the world. I don't think that any is European. Let me ask you to give the word for Europe. So I will share the burden from a business point of view, but she has to do as well. And what's going to be going away actually decisions are being made about

technology where it's bought and how it gets used and while the US and China have the big platforms that people talk about the technology companies year of actual world of the United States 5G people who can feel actually make 5G working now in America, there wasn't a single company that can do it today. And the reason for that is because when mobile started United States went a different direction Europe agreed on a single format and they went down to experience for both called supplies in Paulding light. All the United

States companies Brazil fingerprint or disappeared there is no China Korea in Europe. Take the step Endocrinology make a huge difference because when you think about the future those who controls by Dior makes 5G will actually control with all the infrastructure in which the technology that we're talking about. What is going to pick up negative about America you with this room because I still believe in global issue be solved without the involvement of the USA despite who is important that he still at the same time.

All times bigger is the u.s. Bigger than China so thick And you and your presentation and the risk being full you need that regulation that because of the color of their skin or a job and the robot standards home, but I'm pretty optimistic about European European countries being able to do this. If you want to stay the fourth most competitive economy in the world, and then this is crucial these new technologies, but at the same time for the hours for scientist to come and let's also accounts for

the many things. I mentioned earlier because I'm extremely optimistic about what that can do. If you're not to eat and that includes working with global standards that includes maintaining liberal International rules for dividend including making changes to the big Global organization. Well, we have less than one minute and I'm supposed to summarize this so let me actually think I think we have participated and seeing a discussion between a philosopher and a political leader trying to conceptualize a little further with the 21st century might look

like there was a little bit of pessimism and optimism and I think a lot of realism as one starts to think about where to take that next and it's important to talk about those things realize them. So please join me in thanking both speakers for today.