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Anna Nagurney
John F. Smith Memorial Professor at Isenberg School of Management, University of Massachusetts Amherst
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IRAC Chicago 2020
September 25, 2020, Online, Chicago, IL, USA
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Novel Supply Chain Network Models Inspired by the COVID-19 Pandemic–From Optimization to Game Theory
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About the talk

Anna Nagurney

John F. Smith Memorial Professor Department of Operations & Information Management

Isenberg School of Management, University of Massachusetts Amherst

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically illustrated the importance of labor (and its health and availability) to supply chains from food to healthcare. The pandemic has also revealed the fierce global competition for personal protective equipment (PPEs) and other medical supplies. In this presentation, I will overview some of our timely research on the development and solution of a spectrum of network-based supply chain optimization and game theory models that are inspired by such issues.

About speaker

Anna Nagurney
John F. Smith Memorial Professor at Isenberg School of Management, University of Massachusetts Amherst

Anna Nagurney is the John F. Smith Memorial Professor in the Department of Operations & Information Management in the Isenberg School of Management at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. She is also the Founding Director of the Virtual Center for Supernetworks and the Supernetworks Laboratory for Computation and Visualization at UMass Amherst. She received her AB, ScB, ScM, and PhD degrees from Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island. She devotes her career to education and research that combines operations research / management science, engineering, and economics. In 2020, Professor Anna Nagurney was awarded the Harold Larnder Prize from the Canadian Operational Research Society and was selected to be an IFORS Distinguished Lecturer. She was elected a Fellow of the Network Science Society and received the award at the NetSci Conference at the University of Vermont in Burlington in May. She received the biannual Constantin Caratheodory Prize from the International Society for Global Optimization at its conference in Metz, France in July 2019. She was the Omega Rho Distinguished Lecturer for the INFORMS Annual 2018 Conference in Phoenix, Arizona.

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So our next speaker is doctor and on the gurney. She is Jonah Smith Memorial professor at the isenberg school of management at University of Massachusetts University, and she's going to talk to us today on Noble supply chain Network inspired by the covid-19. Breathing is such a pleasure to be speaking with you today at the end from Chicago Regional Conference. I wish I could be with you in person. But during these challenging times. This is what we have

to do. It's a pleasure for me to have this opportunity to talk to you about some work that we've been doing since the World Health Organization declared the covid-19 and tonic. First would like to give a hearty thank you to the Inn from Chicago chapter and also to the informs analytics Society for this invitation and I also would like to congratulate them for taking the initiative to organize this Regional analytics conference on several themes which I think are especially timely

and it would be remiss not to also wish and forms a very very happy 25th anniversary. Is there a fantastic Friday and we always so much in terms of community building networking and also professional exchanges to essential workers. Haitian and expertise have helped sustain us during this very very challenging. In history. So this is the outline of my presentation. I would like to First emphasize the background and a kind of work that we've been doing that serves as a

platform for additional research focusing on the supply chain networks inspired by the covid-19 pandemic and here since my kids without food and nutrition Network models in terms of medical supplies now, What we're seeing in the cupboard pandemic is something quite unusual and that has to deal with a lot of competition Regional governments government Healthcare organizations, and so forth, especially in terms of medical supplies, so I will show you how the spike Network models can

naturally evolved to also capture competition and there'll be talkin about to essentially basic models that we have constructed. I will give you a sense of where we're going and also to invite the community to join us to collaborate on other kinds of extensions today's presentation by emphasizing that the work that are great operations research analytics Community impact. And I'm policy and I think we deserve a lot of credit for this and also show you how we can proceed in this direction to have even greater. So thank you

and welcome everyone so impatient because you have to start somewhere. So I work on the network systems. I'm passionate about networks and behavior of users on different kinds of Fountain actually continue to do was congested Urban Transportation networks complex interacting stakeholders. Acting individually, they might be operating a check to function so on and also there are no disciplinary wants to see if we can Envision a better kind of Internet. So the research that we've been doing in terms of supply chain Network.

Sometimes we have industry folks people from different countries, Sometimes it's coming from research that students are really interested in sometimes it comes from the news front page news. And we see if we can add to the research at understanding. So we've done a lot of work on food supply chain networks recently and also a different kinds of applications in healthcare covid-19 pandemic. So I really believe in documenting we do and when way to doing it if you have say 5 or 10 research articles on a certain

it makes sense to write a book. Say when one of my books arrives, usually the students kind of them and run off with them. So I think that's a great Carreta de Arthur durch Dynamics. So when it comes to the kind of research that we're doing now, it's very important to have a really really emphasized. Okay, so I always kind of when you were in college. You never know the kinds of courses, that would be useful. So here when we talk about food, we actually discuss

models with food scientist. You want to have the physics perspective the chemistry perspective biology and so on and it's also relevant to different applications. And that's going to be a big issue when we start actually Distributing the vaccines. It's going to be a cold chain and we have to be ready for this food is essential to our health and well-being and when we've seen that food supply chains have been some that have actually suffered the greatest kinds of disruptions and even in terms of quality deterioration. We talked about how our models can handle

some of that. You got our first model on food was published in 2013 population of European Journal of operational research and near what we did. It was actually a network and we would track the deterioration of safe the quality of the food through the various Pathways in the supply chain Network and associated with each link would be it art X move out of the essay and orange. Because of the quality generation that's natural in terms of fresh. You would have a certain amount of would have to be so we had an objective function. You

also had waste and the firm's would be competing with one another that it maximizing their profits and also seeking out with a certain way to minimize the waste so here We also that one further with another former student lying now a professor. Dr. Jane is basic to go a little deeper into the frigid aeration. And that was a model that I had several Farms. They were also competing with one another but we focused on farmers markets and we were actually able to identify difference of formulae depending upon the pathways

and the farmers would compete at the farmers markets not just through another come out of clothes and so on that actually through the quality, which is essential in this economy. Further and it's important for me to set the stage for this they'll be talking about extensions and what's happening in covid-19 because food is related to Quality. Also you have cold chain and so on that we were able to France and pharmaceutical supply chain and the paper was published in transportation research

on networks. I truly believe that having a graphic representation via a network topology helps to communicate the information. Decision-makers visuals are extremely important in their field and also you can see similarities between identify. Okay what happens if a particular no goes down what happens to enter a new Gmail and Mark it? What will they do to the prophets to the end to the other firms and Stella? So another related application which we've done a lot of work on and I'll be coming back to that. Is that a blood supply chains? That is extremely unique. It

cannot be produced if it has to be donated we have to be willing to donate it. So there have been many many shortages and now we're even dealing with the Red Cross and other organizations are also working in that area. Here you see some of our recent work and interested when you know, you have competition in the sector as well because it's not just American Red Cross. Was there other Blood Service organizations in violence now and actually has been really really challenged in the US economically

and for other reasons is undergoing a lot of Transformations even now. So let me out by adrenaline. We just want to do good. We have the skills and it's enough fighting the time the energy to get so let me know talk about some of the work that we've been doing in the construction of optimization supply chain. Our food and then I'll talk about one for medical supplies the major disruptions. We've seen no plans and processing plants in the u.s. And if you think of the conditions in which the system saying they were contract a lot of pressure

and pain City. So there have been numerous labor you can produce products. So in our research in the pandemic, this is something that we've been focusing on how do you operate labor as a critical resource gay variable into supply chain networks as we'd like to see what happens if there's a fraction in face service provision what happens if you can't have the migrant workers picking the fresh produce now is is happening in the Northeast. So in this grocery stores,

you will only be able to get a smaller selection of the me if you can get what you want. Fresh conscious and Jerry now, which is really really troubling cuz that a time when our Citizens need good quality foods are also having a great stage because you can't get labor there and locations to pick the following up on this phone cases were farmers in the work so hard to raise their are there cattle their needs are pigs the chickens and sew on patch. Actually, I never been open estimates. This is very ReStore in a recent

Farmers tend to be very agile adaptive summer trying to you know, how some of these cost in Japan Radon gas so big and so on but lots and lots of issues here, which is no extra restaurants businesses as well as schools of the food supply chains. We're completely transformed some restaurant chores have been very very Innovative. I produced a special issue and I heard you to go see it. It's extremely extremely troubling having to do with food insecurity in the United States and hunger in the pandemic right now near me.

And so on and there are many reasons for it. Of course people are losing have reduced employment and so on so it's very very very challenging. These are some of the new sightings and you see I mean in spanish National the disruptions in food distribution, and it's not only a national phenomena is also a global phenomenon because you don't have the labor where you need it. The G man has been totally changed and so on. We were really inspired by what was happening and say deeply motivated

by change networks with labor and the covid-19 pentamic and it is now in progress in our Third Bank auditing. This is essentially the way I look at the problem. There is labor associated with different lengths in the food supply chain certain capacity associated with no also labor as a certain product or a storage length. Do you have a firm that is interested in maximizing profits to the labor availability thing about this work? If you look at the Cinepolis

supply chain, where is we are more interested in operations research in the production outfits, but not so much in labor as we were able to kind of operations research side, and then you can actually the network topology of the perishable food supply chain. Direct links going from certain manufacturing sites to Demian points in these can actually be households which were having happening and it could be an agricultural business. It could be a meat processing

and specific food application. You can have no more tears are fewer tears and a different kind of topology. So we were able to find is which makes a lot of sense. Now if you lacked labor, even on a single link could be afraid one that can significantly negative terms of the products Lowe's and also in terms of the profits in addition keeping your workers healthy is imperative because then they will be more productive. A lot of lessons here for the agribusinesses in the United States.

They have to actually inside their processing plants to make sure that the workers are productive and otherwise, you can get a complete shutdown furthermore Adam direct sales for their farmers markets nearby Farm stands made truly help a food for him in a pen gemach happening in practice increases can encourage. These are some positives and you can do it. Segway see you in a previous model. We had capacities on each of the links in terms of labor. Now, we're moving to the shortages of medical supply another area that has completely obsessed

mean we have a major Trauma Center in our community in Springfield known as they stay by the chief medical officer has dr. Arnstein and he's gone through an intense ways to actually try and get okay the pp. He's even driving in the middle of night and so forth. So that's something really really important and we had numerous numerous other issues in getting pee pees and her the problem was China's actually producing half of the pee pees and planned the outbreak started in They wanted to protect their own people which makes sense. But we have shortages

even now. Hey look at it on August 26th and 22nd. The same situation exists today in many ways things have gotten worse. There is a lack of coordinated National strategy to acquire and distribute what we've done we have both elastic in the ends as well as 60 man and this becomes the network topology, but I'm like the model for the food supply changed. Now, we allow for three different scenarios. You have a profound Sun Libra on each Lane Upper bound of Labor

across a tear of network activities. Okay, or Fraser's providers can be reallocated. It's the other kind of activities. Volume of Labor available in the supply chain Network even in your upset on some of the airline workers are being retrained to become a healthcare worker. We have multiple insights as well. And also in electric Commerce is extremely important and having flexibility of Labor to be allocated by Jane tear that have huge impact. Okay in terms of profitability and that we think it's really really

funny 20. I publish an article in the conversation the game theory can't help. So it was based on several papers that we did and one of which was essentially the model they just presented I was able to generalize to the case of multiple production factors. And so far production activities do have different firms competing for labor. You have Farms competing for the logically because you have no common constraints that are shared capacity colibrium, but it's a generalized Nash equilibria. Hey

cuz you have not only utility functions depending upon the strategies of the other players in the game competition and we focused on very expensive products like you see in most medical supplies and so on and the impacts of a labor disruptions on these under these different scenarios of Labor availability of working with collaborators, we were very interested in seeing okay, you might have uncertain so let's suppose you have fixed supplies of PPE. So again, you see you have these Health

Organization How do we do that under the account? That's a paper which is now a special edited volume and I thought I'd share with you an objective function of save for one of the different. So the interested in minimizing costs are on the station and you have waste associated with expected shortages and maybe as expected Surplus supplies and how much they can actually protects your body and competition and what is essential is to have more Supply points our nation must invest in more production facilities. That is imperative.

And also this work is relevant to the case of coronavirus chesca's where she has that there might be shortages when it comes to vaccines that are needed by James and also for different kinds of medical treatment last part was just impacting policy through analytics. We do fantastic work, but we need to get a new sound about our work. So for quite a few years, I've been very big on writing and writing for the conversation for example, and the work has gotten reprinted a major

publication outlets and it was even before I left and that results in uniform. 11:20 on March 12th, My article blood supply chains was published in the coronavirus and even an inference analytics and extension on an update on March 24th that resulted in numerous inquiries from the media even NBC News in Boston and other kinds of bad news. I think this is what's so heartwarming on April 22nd. There was a letter signed by 22 us attorney general's Department of Health and Human Services

of that document was the citation to my conversation. So and this was asking for more liberal blood collection policies or end because of the shortages. So thank you very much for this opportunity. It's been fantastic this since I was super Network site where we have a lot of our research, and I look forward to the questions and thanks again everyone. Thank you. Thank you so much, So I have like a couple of questions in the comments section which early for you. So just a question from awesome. So

40-piece Supply Holiday summation of undertaking in terms of consumption patterns in healthcare providers as well as, consumers based on variations in the case of a geographical area. I'm sorry. I didn't quite guess I how is. So does a question from Macon Supply undertaken in terms of consumption patterns among the healthcare providers as well as to call Consumers based on no relations in geographic area expected demand, and we also have uncertainties so we had branches play around with it and you can change actually the functions that's not an issue.

Question from we know that's well. So in the pp distribution model where you reallocate labor results change, if you incorporate cost of retraining in the papers that we have we explicitly say that they are not much if the costs are more you have to include that in in terms of the model, but we wanted to get this out first because he knows the first conceptual framework and also said to put a product flows into supply chain Networks. You can go on and on with this which is good. That isn't a question from how do you say

so how do you mitigate the Discrimination in the blood distributed distribution competition during pandemic? Algae and mitigate that that's really interesting. I wouldn't say there's discrimination per se I think at the beginning of the bus service organizations, maybe weren't paying enough attention to sanitation and so on and I was inundated with emails asking me if I could speak out on that. I think I accidentally did it because some would show up and they actually got frightened honestly. Thank you. Thank you so much. It was great having you

any good. Thank you. I wish we had more time by everyone. Write thank you very much, or we went to Super Quick break for Just 2 minutes and we'll come back with the next bus station.

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